Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
